Middle East oil flows now surpass levels before U.S.-Iran war, Kpler says

Middle East oil exports, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes, averaged more than 24M bbl/day in the week through October 18, surpassing pre-war levels despite escalating violence across the region, ship tracker Kpler reported Wednesday.

Oil flows through Hormuz, including offshore transfers in the Gulf of Oman, totaled ~14M bbl/day on average for the same period, or 82% of pre-war levels, according to preliminary figures.

Gulf oil is flowing despite ~30 Iranian attacks on ships reported so far this month, according to a Wall Street Journal tally based on reports by the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Center and maritime security companies.

Pipelines across Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also moving oil along different routes, and Kpler estimated that ~40% of the non-Iranian crude shipped out of the Persian Gulf in September bypassed the strait, compared with 17% before the war.

The success contrasts with the chokehold on Iran, whose own oil exports have been bottled up by the U.S. maritime blockade.

Traders are concerned that the Hormuz improvement might not be sustainable, and thinning global inventories leave little margin for error, but the resilience of oil flows marks a shift in the battle over the energy chokepoint; Iran can still make shipments dangerous and expensive, but its leverage with the U.S. has been weakened.

"Volumes remain high despite rising attacks, because profits make it worth the risk," Kpler's head of crude oil analysis Homayoun Falakshahi said, estimating traders can earn $20/bbl more reselling Iraqi oil than before the war, or ~$40M on cargo from a supertanker.

Oil prices have fluctuated between gains and losses Wednesday, with front-month Nymex crude CL1! for November delivery and front-month Brent crude UKOIL for December delivery both up 0.1% at $97.93/bbl and $108.91/bbl, respectively.Pernyataan PenyangkalanContent provided by Seeking Alpha is intended for information purposes only, and that Seeking Alpha does not offer any personalist investment advice and is not a licensed securities dealer, broker, US investment adviser or investment bank.

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